» January 4th, 2006

This week's article brought to you by Mark Henderson

Take A Chance On Wild Rovers And White Hot Laners!

Those people who say anyone can win the FA Cup are, of course, correct but history tends to point to the usual suspects. The last 10 FA Cup Finals have all been won by either Man Utd (4/1 with bet365 for this year's competition), Chelsea (3/1), Arsenal (11/2) or Liverpool (9/1). In the 1980's there were 7 different winners, and 9 in the 70's. This just confirms the dominance of the 'big 4' and it's no surprise to see all four teams' head this year's betting.

It's often hard to see past the favourites, but Tottenham look a standout bet at best-priced 14/1, considering their excellent league form. Spurs have a comfortable looking tie at Leicester in the third round, (9/2 Leicester, 4/7 Spurs and 5/2 the draw – Live on BBC1), but have the makings of an excellent cup team. They're difficult to beat and will believe they have a genuine opportunity of winning this trophy. Another team who look overpriced are Blackburn at 50/1. Mark Hughes has quietly moved Rovers up to eighth in the Premiership, and have a home tie against QPR (2/5 Blackburn, 6/1 QPR and 3/1 the draw). When you consider they're double the price of Middlesbrough (25/1 – 16th) and three times bigger than Newcastle (14/1 – 11th), that has to be value, but be quick. The 50/1 is the biggest price among all UK bookmakers so it may not last!

FA Cup Picks:
Tottenham to win the FA Cup @ 14/1
Blackburn to win the FA Cup @ 50/1

Pool Of Talent Will Be Too Much For Hatters

With every Premiership team taking on lower league opposition, there's bound to be a shock or two. The key is, of course, to avoid those banana skins (Remember Exeter last year?). Man Utd take on non-league opposition again this year, but can't really be backed at 1/14 nor can they realistically be opposed. Liverpool (2/5) travel to Luton (6/1) for Saturday's live game (17.30 BBC1) and should record an easy win. After their good start to the season, Luton have nosedived, losing nine of their last 13 games. Liverpool's excellent form has been well-documented and an early goal could see the Reds win at a canter. In games where they've led at half time, Liverpool have won every time (7 out of 7) and they're 10/11 to do it again.

Live Game Pick: Half-time/Full-time – Liverpool/Liverpool @ 10/11

On Sunday, Tottenham travel to Leicester (18.30 BBC1) and the 4/7 about Spurs is giving money away. The Foxes are struggling in the Championship and have suffered home defeats to the likes of Luton, Cardiff and Burnley already this season. Leicester can be backed at 9/2 to win this game, but Craig Levein will be more concerned with maintaining Leicester's Championship status than putting together a cup run in a competition which ultimately they can't win. Once the game goes live, don't forget to check out 14 exciting live 'In-Play' markets.

Live Game Pick: Double: Liverpool (2/5) & Tottenham (4/7)

FA Cup 3rd round weekend is notoriously tough. It is one of the most difficult weekends to make money because there are more short-priced teams than normal, and there's always at least one team that hangs on for an unlikely draw. Seven Premiership teams are 1/5 or shorter, and backing all seven equates to about 8/11, so we're going to have to look elsewhere for value.

Everton (4/5) look a decent price to turn Millwall over. The Lions have the worst home record in the Championship and Everton's record suggests they're better away from home. Millwall may have won their last 2, but they were against lowly Derby and Brighton and prior to that, they'd won only one of their previous 17. This game comes at a time when Everton are starting to turn the corner, with influential midfielder Tim Cahill hitting form, scoring 3 in his last 2 games.

Another standout bet is League One highfliers Brentford to beat League Two's bottom club Stockport at 10/11. Stockport have won only twice all season, and recent results include 6-0 defeats to Macclesfield and Carlisle. Brentford have suffered only one defeat in their last nine, and have been hovering near the top of League One all season. Stockport managed the shock of round 1 by beating Swansea, but it's very unlikely they could manage a repeat against Martin Allen's side.

Of course, there's always a chance one of the minnows could cling on for a draw and you'd do your cash. If you're feeling cautious there's always our 'draw no bet' coupon, or even the Asian Handicap, which is becoming more popular every week.

Our FA Cup Accumulator pays £188.94 for £25, but you can always add on the likes of Chelsea (1/20), Man Utd (1/14) and Arsenal (1/10) to boost the return, but be wary of Exeter's incredible achievement at Old Trafford last year. Surely that can't happen again. Can it?

FA Cup Accumulator:
Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton and Brentford pays £188.94 (£25 Stake)

Barney's Rivals Turn To Rubble

After the Phil Taylor show in Purfleet, the attention of the darts world moves to Frimley Green for the Raymond Barneveld show. The four-times World Champion is widely regarded as second only to Phil Taylor, and rumours have it that 'Barney' may well be preparing to jump ship to the PDC after this tournament. Undoubtedly the PDC is a much tougher circuit and there are those who believe the gap between Barneveld and the rest of the BDO is as big as the gap between Taylor and the rest of the PDC, yet Taylor started 4/9 and Barney is available at 5/4. Should he win his first round match against Brian Sorensen, he'll almost certainly go odds-on, so get on early. There's also a trend for one or two big names to fall at the first hurdle in this tournament, further strengthening the argument for an ante post wager at 5/4.

Darts Pick:
Raymond Barneveld to win BDO World Championship @ 5/4

Briareus Can Provide Some Handy Money

It's been a terrible week for ante post punters with Kicking King, Harchibald and Inglis Drever all confirmed as non runners for Cheltenham. This news, coupled with the loss of the much loved Best Mate and Rooster Booster has left some very interesting ante post markets, not least the World Hurdle where Rhinestone Cowboy (7/2) heads the betting despite not being sighted on a racetrack for nearly two years.

On Saturday we've got Channel 4 racing from Haydock and Sandown, with the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle taking place at the Surrey track. This is a very competitive race, with Nicky Henderson saddling the favourite Afrad (11/2). The best supported horse in the race has been Verasi, who has been backed in to 10/1 from 12/1. Gary Moore's 5 year-old last ran on 3rd December when it beat a high class field in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle on heavy going. Martin Pipe has five entries in the race at present, and Not Left Yet (10/1) looks his best chance. This really is an open race with lots of chances, but Briareus (9/1) looks the one to beat. Andrew Balding may be better known as a flat trainer, but Briareus ran impressively at Doncaster last month, losing narrowly, when conceding weight, to Desert Quest for the in-form Paul Nicholls yard.

Another which caught the eye last time out was Handy Money, when finishing sixth to Lingo at 150/1. Alan King's horses are bang in form at the moment and this one could run well at 18/1.

The race is live on Channel 4, where you can take advantage of our great offer. Back a winner at 4/1 or better, and you get a free bet to the same stake on the next Channel 4 race! If you can't get to a TV don't worry. Just bet £5 on the race and click on the live stream next to the race and you can watch it on your PC.

Horse Pick:
Briareus (3.10 Sandown) @ 9/1
Handy Money (3.10 Sandown) Each-way @ 18/1

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.