» January 11th, 2006

This week's article brought to you by Mark Henderson

13/10 About Toon and Gloom at the Cottage

Well, what about last week? The FA Cup saw more giant killings than a Jack-and-the-Beanstalk convention. I mean, we all expect the odd shock here and there, but to see so many Premiership teams humbled was beyond anyone's expectation. After a difficult draw for the likes of Bolton, West Ham and Blackburn, the outright market remains largely unchanged. Chelsea (11/4), Man Utd (7/2), Arsenal (13/2) and Liverpool (13/2) still head the betting, with Newcastle offering the best of the rest, after a kind draw, at 14/1.

We're back to the nitty-gritty of league football this weekend, so hopefully matches may go a bit more to form than last weeks madness! For me, the standout bet of the weekend is Fulham to beat Newcastle at 13/10. The reason Fulham occupy 14th place is their away form. At home they've a better record than Bolton, Newcastle and Man City. After last week's disaster against Leyton Orient, Chris Coleman was scathing in his team's performance, so there could be a backlash here.

It's also worth remembering that Newcastle are constantly overrated by the bookmakers. We all remember the glory days of Keegan, Ginola, Asprilla and the like, but it appears that the romanticism of Newcastle and their long-suffering fans affects the odds compilers, who always show the Magpies too much respect. Newcastle (7/4 to win the match) are only 3 points better off than Fulham, and will be without Michael Owen. The Magpies have recorded only one league win in 10 attempts without the England striker, and that came against hapless Sunderland.

Premiership Pick:
Fulham to beat Newcastle @ 13/10

Hughes the Daddy in Lancashire Derby @ 11/10

Blackburn entertain Bolton on Saturday (5.15 – Premiership Plus) and Mark Hughes' much-improved outfit can keep up their excellent run by registering all three points. Bolton are suffering more than most at the moment, losing five players to the African Nations Cup. The Trotters didn't have a great Christmas period, and have dropped to 7th place, whereas Rovers have won five of their last six, and have climbed into 8th.

Bolton were down to 12 fit first team players against Watford last Saturday, and Sam Allardyce has made no secret of the fact that his team may struggle throughout the next month without the likes of Diouf, Jaidi and Okocha. Dickov (11/2 to score the first goal) Pedersen (7/1) and Bellamy (5/1) have all been finding the net recently, and it all points towards a Rovers win.

Live Game Pick:
Blackburn to beat Bolton @ 11/10

Fortress Fratton Again Now Harry's Back

Amazing isn't it? Portsmouth haven't been able to win a one-ticket raffle at home all season, then Harry returns and what happens? They're unbeaten at home. One of the main contributors to Pompey's success over the last couple of years has been their home form, and it looks like Harry's got them back-on-track. Pompey can be backed at 10/11 to avoid the drop, and this price is sure to harden, should they turn Everton over (the Toffees are 5/1 to be relegated). It's getting harder every week to trust Everton. Just when you think they've turned the corner, they let you down. Leon Osman's late equalizer against Millwall spared their Cup blushes, but after wins against Sunderland and Charlton, Everton fans (and backers) would have expected better. The 11/5 on offer to beat Pompey doesn't exactly get the juices flowing, so it'll be Portsmouth in our accumulator.

The Good (1/5) vs. The Bad and The Ugly (12/1)

The final leg of our four-fold is the easiest of the lot. On Sunday at 4.05 (live on Sky Sports 1), the worst team in the league, with the worst home record, who haven't won in their last 13 league games take on the best team in the league (maybe the world), with the best away record, and have lost only 2 league games in the last 2 seasons. You've got more chance of getting a council house in Belgravia than Chelsea losing this match. While the 1/5 is as skinny as it gets, there are two reasons for choosing the champions to complete our accumulator this week. Firstly, the match is on Sunday, which means the other 3 legs will already be up, so it'll add to the excitement, and secondly….. it's a certainty! After the madness of last week, order will be restored (I hope)!

A £25 Accumulator on our four teams pays a handsome £319.50 which includes a bet365 bonus of 5% (up to 60% available every weekend).

Premiership Accumulator Pick:
Fulham, Portsmouth, Blackburn & Chelsea pays £319.50 (£25 Stake)

Lahore Bore Draw too Good to Ignore @ 4/5

At 4.45am on Friday morning, Pakistan and India meet in Lahore for the first of three Test Matches. Of course, the pitches will bear little or no resemblance to the fast bowler graveyards prepared for England's pace attack. India have two of the best spinners in the world in Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh and the rumours are that pacey, grassy pitches will be the order of the day.

There's very little between these sides (12/5 Pakistan and 10/3 India), and the 4/5 quote about the draw may look skinny, but 15 matches out of 23 between these two in Pakistan have ended in stalemate. It's midwinter in Pakistan, so the days are shorter. There's a particular problem with fog in Lahore at the moment and the weather forecast is for rain during the match.

If the 4/5 doesn't appeal, the 0-0 series correct score looks value at 13/2. Given how closely matched the teams are, the quality of the batsmen on show (Tendulkar, Dravid and Inzamam are amongst the top 10 in the world at present) and midwinter conditions in Pakistan, it's almost inconceivable that any more than one match will end in a result. If you fancy India or Pakistan to win, you can get 7/2 for a 1-0 series victory for either side. I believe there are only three possible series outcomes; 1-0 for either side, or 0-0. At bet365's 13/2, the 0-0 has to be the value.

Cricket Pick:
Pakistan v India (1st test, Lahore) – Draw @ 4/5
Pakistan v India (Series correct score) 0-0 @ 13/2

Joaaci Can Continue Gold Cup Pipe Dream

The Totesport Classic Chase takes place at Warwick on Saturday, and there are plenty who can stake a realistic claim. Paul Nicholls lightly raced 9 year-old Eurotrek (currently 9/1) could feature, after a resounding 25-length victory at Newbury last month. This victory, however, was in far more modest company and the 13lb ratings rise looks a little excessive. Another impressive winner last time out was Dead-Eyed Dick (currently 9/1). Nick Williams' runner turned in an impressive performance, beating well-fancied Toulouse Lautrec by 9 lengths at Exeter.

The one to be on has to be back-to-form Martin Pipe's gelding Joaaci. He's available at 3/1 (from 7/2), and with so many big-names out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a win here could see the 20/1 quote tumble. Joaaci won a high class event at Cheltenham on New Years Day, beating the likes of Lord of Illusion and Fork Lightning. The Pipe yard has dominated racing for decades and commands plenty of respect, so get on early as the price has already started to shorten.

One for the Each-way punters has to be Sir Rembrandt (14/1). He has been placed in the last 2 Gold Cups, and looked to be travelling well when he came down five fences from the finish in the Welsh National. Sir Rembrandt is a top class stayer, so the 3m 5f distance won't be a problem.

You Can Run But You Can't Hyde

One of the most competitive hurdle races of the season takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday. Escrea is currently 5/1 joint favourite with bet365, yet finished four lengths behind No Where To Hyde at Fairyhouse last month, in a race won by Feathard Lady. No Where to Hyde has been the subject of a monster gamble (currently 7/1 from 14/1) and should reward those who've already put their money down.

Another horse who has been backed this week (currently 5/1 from 7/1) is Victram. He looked all over the winner when well-fancied at Sandown last time out on heavy going, before running out of steam, finally beaten 4 lengths by Verasi.

Weekend Horse Pick:
Joacci – (3.00 Warwick [Saturday])
No Where To Hyde – (2.20 Leopardstown [Sunday])

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.