» January 25th, 2006

BOLTON TO WIN BATTLE OF THE REEBOK AT 9/5

Bolton v Arsenal

Sa Jan 28 – 5.40 ko (BBC1)

bet365 latest FA Cup prices...
Chelsea 5/2, Man Utd 4/1, Liverpool 5/1, Arsenal 13/2, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Man City 20/1, others on bet365 website

The Gunners will be reeling after being dumped out of the Carling Cup by Wigan in the week, and they might struggle to re-group for this midfield battle against Bolton. This is just the sort of game that Arsenal want to avoid right now and we could see an end to their excellent run in this competition (semi-finalists every year since 2000/01). Their form on the road makes them even less appealing here. They've already lost six Premiership aways this season (including at the Reebok), while Bolton have lost only once at home in all competitions. Last week, I suggested that Bolton would struggle with a depleted squad against Man City, but they put in a sound performance to win 2-0 (12th clean sheet of the season), and they look a belting bet at 9/5 to see off the Londoners. Once the game goes live, don't forget to check out our 14 'In-Play' markets.

Live Game Pick: Bolton @ 9/5

READING CAN PROGRESS AT 6/1

There are at least five Premiership sides guaranteed to bite the dust this weekend, and Birmingham could well be one of them. They did rout Portsmouth last weekend, but Pompey missed stacks of chances, and Reading are unlikely to be as generous in front of goal. Only three places separate the Championship leaders from Birmingham, and the Royals have only been beaten by Arsenal in the Carling Cup since the opening day of the season. They could be a good bet in our 'Furthest Progressing Championship Team' market at 6/1, as both Stoke (4/1) and Derby (6/1) could come unstuck against lower league rivals.

Stoke took two games and a penalty shoot-out to see off non-league Tamworth, then followed that with a dismal 3-0 home defeat against Hull. What's more, their top scorer is away on African Cup duty, and they weakened themselves further this week by selling defender John Hall. Their opponents Walsall have already negotiated a tricky away tie in the last round and must be in with a shout here. Championship strugglers Derby are coming off a 6-1 spanking by Coventry, and must travel to League 1 leaders Colchester, who have won eight of their last nine.

Reading to beat Birmingham @ 13/10
Reading to be Furthest Progressing Championship Team @ 6/1
Walsall to beat Stoke @ 7/2
Colchester to beat Derby @ 6/5

THERE'S LIFE IN MACKEMS AT 11/10

In other FA Cup games, a back-to-form Aston Villa (1/5) should have no trouble seeing off Port Vale, while Sunderland (11/10) are fancied to beat Brentford. The Mackems could well be playing in the same league as Brentford next season, but they're finally showing signs of life after beating West Brom and running Chelsea close. Charlton (1/5) can also take heart from their point at Stamford Bridge last weekend, and they can put an end to giant-killers Leyton Orient Cup run. The treble pays a respectable £75.60 for a £25 stake, but I would hesitate to include Newcastle in your accas this weekend. You could argue that 4/7 is a cracking price for them to beat Cheltenham, but they just can't be trusted right now, especially away from home. If they do win, it's unlikely to be by much, which makes an Asian Handicap bet on Cheltenham look attractive (bet to 102%).

FA Cup Treble: Aston Villa (1/5), Sunderland (11/10), Charlton (1/5) Asian Handicap Pick: Cheltenham (v Newcastle)

7/2 ALBUHERA BACKED FOR CHANDLER

This weekend's racing is under threat from the freezing temperatures, but Cheltenham are '60-40' at the time of writing, so hopefully we'll get to see Saturday's star-studded card, and in particular the Victor Chandler Chase (2.10). Betting has really heated up over the last few days, and Albuhera, in particular, has been the subject of strong support. He's now 7/2 favourite (from 11/2), and this prolific hurdler (who has taken really well to fences his term) should be involved at the finish. However, his lack of experience could find him out in this hot contest, and he doesn't look good value now. Problem is most of his opponents have question marks against them too. Second favourite, Dempsey, is almost certainly better going right-handed, while the progressive Town Crier ran poorly on his only previous visit to the track.

PUT FAITH IN TYSOU AT 11/1

bet365 latest Victor Chandler Chase prices...
Albuhera 7/2, Dempsey 11/2, Town Crier, Ground Ball, Fundamentalist 8/1, Tysou 11/1, others on bet365 website

There are no such concerns about Tysou, who rates excellent each-way value at bet365's 11/1 (could be single figures on the day). He's already shown he can make light work of the stiff track and fences by winning over course and distance last month, one of several creditable runs at Cheltenham, including a fourth at last year's Festival. There was also a lot to like about his latest third behind Dempsey at Sandown and, on 4lb better terms, he's fancied to turn the tables on the winner back at his favourite track. The race is one of four to be screened live from the track by Channel 4, which means we can also look forward a free bet (up to £25) on the next live race, should the selection win at 4/1 or bigger.

Victor Chandler Pick: Tysou @ 11/1 (plus free Channel 4 bet!)

HARALD IS KING AT 6/1

Channel 4 are also showing the Skybet Chase from Southwell (2.25), where King Harald is fancied to get his career back on track (currently 6/1) – Channel 4 Offer applies. Things haven't really gone his way since winning at last year's Festival, as he had a really hard race on his reappearance at Cheltenham, and would have been feeling the effects of that when disappointing in the Hennessy. Since then, a bout of ringworm has kept him off the track, but he has been working well at home, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back to his best here. In an open year, he could also be an outside bet for this year's Gold Cup – he's currently a massive 50/1 with bet365 for that race, and those odds will collapse should he win well on Saturday.

Skybet Chase Pick: King Harald @ 6/1 (Gold Cup ante post @ 50/1)

BACK GOLD FOR GLORY AT 11/1

bet365 latest Gold Cup prices...
Beef Or Salmon 5/1, Monkerhostin 6/1, Kingscliff 7/1, War Of Attrition, Ollie Magern 10/1, Celestial Gold, take the Stand 11/1, King Harald 50/1, others on bet365 website

There should also be plenty of Gold Cup clues to be gleaned from the Cotswold Chase (3.20), to be run on the same card as the Victor Chandler. A good performance from any of the principals will see their odds tumbling for the big race in March, and Martin Pipe is sure to have Celestial Gold primed for his first run back since finishing seventh in last year's GC. A couple of early mistakes soon sealed his fate there, but he was probably 'over the top' for the season after magnificent wins in the Paddy Power and Hennessy. This season, his campaign has been geared towards the big one in March, but he goes well fresh so we can back him here with confidence (and have a few quid at 11/1 ante post). The danger is Monkerhostin, who remains in the form of his life and is still relatively unexposed over a staying trip. Don't forget, you can watch the race (any race) live here at bet365. Just bet £5 on the race and click on the live stream next to the race.

Cotswold Chase Pick: Celestial Gold (Gold Cup ante post @ 50/1)

DONALD TO START WHERE HE LEFT OFF AT 18/1

Buick Invitational

Th Jan 26 – 20.00 BST (SS2)

Fr Jan 27 – 20.00 BST (SS2)

Sa Jan 28 – 20.00 BST (SS2)

Su Jan 29 – 20.00 BST (SS2)

It might be folly to oppose Tiger this week in one of his favourite tournaments (form figures of 3-1-2-4-5-1-10-1), but we have to take his preparation on trust as he hasn't played competitive golf for over a month, and there must be plenty of each way value elsewhere. The main dangers according to our betting appear to be Phil Mickelson (9/1), but he'll have to drive a lot better than he did last week, while Sergio Garcia's (14/1) putting woes continue to make him a risky proposition. Instead, the 18/1 on Luke Donald looks an each-way steal (19/1 EWO). His record here is impressive – 7th, 2nd and 2nd – and he'll start this campaign with a great deal of confidence after shooting a final round 64 to win last month's Target World Challenge.

Also of interest this week, is last week's runner-up, Jesper Parnevik, at a particularly generous bet365 price of 66/1. That was a welcome return to form for the Swede, after a poor 2005 by his standards, and he's comfortable playing this course judged on his third here to Woods in 2004, and a runner-up spot in 1997. The final pick goes to Arron Oberholser, now that the Tour has reached his home state of California. He has finishes of 4th and 6th in two of three visits to Torrey Pines, and at next month's event at Pebble Beach. In fact, he has a top-10 strike rate of 40% on the PGA Tour in California, which makes our 66/1 look very attractive (40/1 in a place!).

Of course, Tiger won't have to be 100% to win this week, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 13/5 in our 'Enhanced Win Only' market, or wait until the event goes in-running, when he'll probably drift to a bigger price on our 'In-Play Console' at some stage.

Buick Invitational Three Off the Tee … Luke Donald 18/1, Arron Oberholser 66/1, Jesper Parnevik 66/1. Each-way 1/4 odds 1.2.3.4.5

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.