» February 15th, 2006

This week's article brought to you by Mark Henderson

Rafa's Revenge for Last Gasp Old Trafford Loss

Manchester Utd and Liverpool are separated by 30 miles and 3 Premiership points. That's about it. In terms of talent, there's barely a kitten's whisker between them, so picking a winner in Saturday's FA Cup 5th round match is going to be difficult.

bet365's odds reflects how closely matched these two are (7/5 Liverpool, 2/1 Man Utd) and Rio Ferdinand's last minute winner at Old Trafford last month followed a 0-0 draw at Anfield earlier in the season. Of course, you can't discount the draw here (2/1), so the best value looks to be on the Asian handicap where there is a 0 ball mark-up. Liverpool are available at 1.85 with Man Utd 2.00 (you get your money back if it's a draw). In such tight matches, the 0 ball Asian handicap at bet365 offers incredible value (betting to 104%).

With the draw out of the equation, Liverpool look the better value. They've got over their sticky patch and their home record remains excellent (they've won 9 of their last 10 at Anfield). United, in contrast, have won only one of their last 5 Premiership games on the road and that came at lowly Portsmouth. There is a case for taking the plunge and backing Liverpool to win the game at 7/5, but with the sides so closely matched, caution must be the best policy.

Live Game Pick: Liverpool (to beat Man Utd) @ 1.85
[Asian Handicap] Saturday 12.30 – Live On BBC1

Killer Villa Can Pearce City's Defences @ 11/8

On Sunday at 6.30pm, BBC1 and bet365 are offering us Aston Villa (11/8) against Man City (19/10). The Blues are playing some attractive stuff, but are incredibly inconsistent of late, with 3 wins and 3 defeats in their last 6 Premiership games. City's away record is appalling, in fact, it's almost as bad as Villa's home form. City will be without top-scorer Andy Cole, leaving the untried combination up-front of Vassell (7/1 to score first against his former employers) and £6 million man Georgios Samaras (15/2 to score first). Cole has netted 10 times this season and has formed a useful partnership with Vassell. Losing him is a big blow and could just turn the tie Villa's way.

Live Game Pick: Aston Villa (to beat Man City) @ 11/8
Sunday 18.30 – Live On BBC 1

Toon On The Roeder Recovery for Our Accumulator

The first leg of our weekend accumulator starts on Friday night, where peerless Reading travel to Kenilworth Road. Reading are priced at an amazing 11/10 to beat Luton, who have already suffered home defeats this season to the likes of Stoke, Burnley and Hull. Reading are proving to be different class, so a bet365 11/10 quote looks far too big.

Newcastle (2/5) have won both of their matches under Glenn Roeder, and they should continue their winning ways by beating Southampton at St James' Park on Saturday. Their recent upturn in fortune may be just papering over the cracks and their cup run may well end if they're matched with a Premiership team, but the luck of the draw helped the Magpies so far and they'll be expecting to be in the hat for the quarter finals.

They may be struggling in the league, but Birmingham (Evens) have shown they're still a cut above the Championship teams by beating Reading in the last round. They travel to Stoke on Sunday, who haven't won a game since 17th December, a run which has seen them slip from 5th to 16th place in the Championship. Birmingham may not see the FA Cup as their top priority but they've got a talented squad and should have far too much for demoralised Stoke.

The final leg of our Accumulator is the weekend's only Premiership clash between Tottenham (4/6) and Wigan (4/1). Spurs may have gone off the boil a bit in recent weeks, but their home form has remained solid (6 wins from their last 7). Wigan have lost their way lately, a last-gasp win at Middlesbrough has been their only success of 2006 and they should struggle against Spurs who'll have Mido back after his eventful African Nations Cup trip. Since their great early-season run came to an end, Wigan have won only four of their last 15 league matches.

Accumulator: Reading (11/10) Newcastle (2/5) Birmingham (Evs) Tottenham (4/6) - £25 Accumulator Pays £245.00

7/1 Nicholls can Pip Pipe in March to Red Square

The Paul Nicholls-Martin Pipe bandwagon moves to Haydock this weekend where the two heavyweight trainers have entered 10 horses between them for the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup. High-class 6-year-old Joaaci currently heads the betting at 5/1, and Pipe will be hoping for better luck this time around after he was brought down when travelling well behind the eventual winner in the Totesport Classic Chase last month.

That race was won very impressively by Eurotrek, who renews his rivalry with Joaaci here. Paul Nicholls runner is 7/1 at the moment and is bound to attract support. He's a proven stayer on soft ground so the only question mark is his weight. If, as expected, Nicholls takes out Royal Auclair, the weights will rise by 8lb, which will hamper the Pipe trio of Joacci, Therealbandit (currently 12/1) and It Takes Time (16/1). Grand National fancy Silver Birch is unlikely to participate, and Francois Doumen's Innox (12/1 at present) may prefer a crack at the Racing Post Chase at Sandown next week.

As usual for this time of year, the race is likely to cut up badly come Saturday, so with so many horses unlikely to start, the 7/1 Eurotrek could look a big price. The race is live on BBC2, but don't worry of you can't get to a TV. bet365 customers can still watch the race live on-line by betting £5 and clicking on the live stream next to the race.

Horse Pick: Eurotrek (1.40 Haydock, Saturday) @ 7/1

7/1 Clan Royal can go One Better This Year at Aintree

Latest Grand National Prices...
7/1 Clan Royal, 9/1 Hedgehunter, 14/1 Silver Birch, 16/1 Lord Of Illusion, 20/1 Royal Auclair, more on bet365 website

When it comes to horse racing, there's unlucky and there's Clan Royal. Bombing along in front last year, I was already planning my spending spree when he gets carried out by a loose horse. I still wake up in the middle of the night sometimes dreaming about it, but this year I can banish that painful memory of 9th April 2005 by backing Jonjo's 11 year-old at 7/1.

Last year's winner, Hedgehunter, is has been given a 12lb higher mark than last season whereas Clan Royal runs off the same 10st 8lb mark. The Grand National hasn't been the luckiest race for him, finishing second to Amberleigh House in 2004, but this generous handicap mark could mean his luck is changing. Since the weights were published on Tuesday, there's been a nibble for Paul Nicholls' Silver Birch who is now 14/1 from 16/1.

Ante Post Pick: Clan Royal (John Smith's Grand National) @ 7/1

England's Cowboys 11/1 for Indian Massacre

We might not be getting the massive 15/8 we got for Pakistan earlier this winter, but India to win the series at 4/5 is still a cracking bet. England haven't won a single test in India since 1984, losing 6 of their last 8 on the sub-continent. Also, the timing of this tour plays into India's hands. England's last tour of India was in 2001 during December, when it is a lot cooler than it is in March. In 1993, England toured after Christmas and wilted in the fierce heat, losing the three match series 3-0, two of those defeats were by an innings.

England's success over the past couple of years has been built on their pace attack, but with Flintoff likely to miss the final test and Harmison and Hoggard looking ineffective in Pakistan, it will be down to their spinners to bear the brunt of the bowling. Udal, Panesar and Blackwell have only three caps between them and a test bowling average of 92. In contrast, Harbhajan and Kumble are two of the best spinners on the planet, the latter needing just six more wickets to be the 5th player in history to take 500 test scalps. In the last series in India in November, 61 of the 86 wickets taken fell to spinners.

Apart from the gulf in class on the slow bowler front, India have probably the finest batting line up in the world. Tendulkar, Dravid, Sehwag and Dohni are all genuine world class performers and Yuvraj and Laxman would get into most test teams around the world. Michael Vaughan has injury worries, Flintoff will be at his wife's bedside during the final test and I fear the worst for England's inexperienced spinners against the might of the Indian top order. One of the reasons England won the Ashes was a settled side, something they didn't have in Pakistan, and something they don't have here. It could be a long, hard tour in Indian country.

Cricket Pick: India to win the Test Series (v England) @ 4/5
Series Correct Score Pick: India to win 3-0 @ 11/1

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.