» March 1st, 2006

FULHAM ARE DERBY VALUE AT 11/5

This weekend, we'll be playing up our winnings from the Carling Cup (cleaned up on the outright, double result and first goal scorer markets!) by taking bet365's 11/5 on Fulham to beat Arsenal. Despite some indifferent away form this season, the layers still consistently over-estimate the Gunners, and there's no way they should be 11/10 here (11/5 the draw). Arsenal were fortunate to catch Real Madrid on a bad night when nicking the win, and Fulham won't be as complacent as the Spaniards. Besides, Fulham have won eight of their last nine Premiership home games, including a 6-1 thrashing of West Brom last weekend, so they are massive value for this derby.

Fulham to beat Arsenal @ 11/5

DRAW IS BEAUTIFUL AT 11/5

Thankfully, Newcastle v Bolton is not on the box, as the football is unlikely to be pretty, and goals could be at a premium. Bolton have been struggling to win games (drawn five of their last six), and finding the net against Newcastle won't be easy. Like Bolton, Newcastle have become difficult to break down and this could be a match in which the defences hold the upper hand. Cash in by backing the stalemate and go 'under' on the bet365 goals market too.

Newcastle v Bolton – Draw @ 11/5 / 'Under' 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

BAGGIES COULD SHOCK AT 7/1

Bolton v Chelsea

Sa Mar 4 – 12.45 ko (Prem Plus)

Call it March Madness, but am I the only one who thinks West Brom have got more than a squeak of pulling off a massive upset on Saturday? At 7/1, bet365 clearly don't, but Chelsea have been badly underperforming since the turn of the year, and they cannot afford to be complacent at the Hawthorns. West Brom have won six matches at home this season, including four against sides in the top half of the table, and could be catching Chelsea at the right time. The game is live on Sky, so we'll get chance to hedge our bets via the bet365 'In-Play Console' (up to 14 dynamic markets), but the 7/1 pre-match price looks worth a small investment now. Arguably, our Asian Handicap is even better value (bet to 102%), where the Baggies are currently available at 2.02 with a goal start (if Chelsea win by a single goal your stake is refunded).

Newcastle v Bolton – Draw @ 11/5 / 'Under' 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

We'll bottle the chance to get our Premiership acca off to a perfect start at the Hawthorns, but a £25 acca on Fulham (11/5), Middlesbrough (10/11), Man City (2/5) and Newcastle to draw (11/5) still pays out a healthy £718.43, which is inflated by a bet365 Premiership Acca Bonus of 5% (up to 60% more every weekend).

Premiership Acca
4-fold on Fulham, Middlesbrough, Man City and Newcastle (to draw) pays £718.43 (£25 stake) – which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%

INJURY WOE FOR 10/11 BLUES

bet365 Premiership Relegation prices...
Portsmouth 1/10, West Brom 4/6, Birmingham 10/11, Middlesbrough 16/1, others on bet365 website

The Baggies may (or may not) win the battle of the Hawthorns this weekend, but will they win the war against relegation? Three points against Chelsea would do very nicely, but even if things don't go their way at the weekend, they might still have enough breathing space to survive. Things change very quickly in the bet365 relegation market – the Baggies were odds-against before losing to in-form Boro – and Birmingham will go into their relegation six-pointers against Boro and West Brom (March 11th) with injuries to several key players. With Sunderland as good as down, and Portsmouth similarly doomed, it's a case of perming one from two, and my money is on the Blues at 10/11.

BECKHAM 13/8 NOT TO BE AT MADRID NEXT SEASON

England aside, David Beckham's future at Real Madrid has been thrown into doubt after the resignation of President Florentino Perez, and bet365 are offering 13/8 on him not starting next season at the Bernabeu. The England captain, who is yet to win a trophy at Real Madrid, has only got one season left on his current contract, and any extension looks to be on hold now.

Will David Beckham Start 2006/7 La Liga Season At Madrid?
Yes   4/9
No    13/8

WIN CHELTENHAM MONEY AND FREE BETS

bet365 Racing Post Chase latest prices...
Lacdoudal 6/1, Ladalko 7/1, Fork Lightning 8/1, Graphic Approach 9/1, L'Ami 10/1, Iznogoud 16/1, others on bet365 website

Last week's big race tip, Fork Lightning, ran appallingly (jockey blamed the heavy ground), but he could still bounce back in one of the Festival handicaps on decent ground. We can be assured of a decent price there, but there's (Cheltenham) betting money to be made this weekend at the televised Newbury meeting, and free bets on offer here at bet365!

My idea of the Vodafone Gold Cup (3.15) winner is the hat-trick-seeking Montgermont, who must be seriously respected should he line up here instead of an alternative race at Lingfield (3.30). He's not trained by a fashionable yard (Mrs L C Taylor), which means he's been allowed to go off at generous prices for his last two wins, and that could be the case again on Saturday. In his absence, the Martin Pipe-trained Winsdsor Boy looks a good substitute as he's set to carry just 10st 8lb. The race is one of four to be screened live from the track by Channel 4, which means we can also look forward to a bet365 bonus of a free bet (up to £25) on the next live race, should the selection win at 4/1 or bigger.

Also, keep an eye out for Tokala, who'll be bidding to keep his unbeaten record intact at Newbury on either Friday or Saturday. Despite hating the sharp Fakenham circuit, he still managed to scramble home last time out, and this track will suit better. bet365 customers can follow his progress, wherever he runs, via our live stream, providing they bet £5 on the race.

9/1 KASBAH ROCKS THE TRIUMPH BETTING

A Glass In Tyne, an impressive winner of last month's Great Yorkshire Chase looks the answer to Saturday's Grimthorpe Chase at Lingfield (3.30, live on Channel 4 and bet365). The key to this horse is soft ground, and he's sure to get that, while his trainer (Ben Pollack) reckons there's "still more to come" from the improving eight-year-old. A further positive can be gleaned from his previous course form, when he ran a blinder when fourth behind L'Ami in a Grade 2 novice chase. The winner has since gone on to run a fine second to Trabolgan in the Hennessey, and filled the same berth in last weekend's Racing Post Chase, behind his stablemate Innox. That was a fine weight-carrying performance from L'Ami, who must now have a cracking each way chance in the Gold Cup, for which he gets a bet365 quote of 12/1.

His trainer, Francois Doumen, can also look forward to running his Kasbah Bliss at the Festival, after that one powered home on Saturday to win the Adonis Hurdle, a race that has thrown up the winner of the Triumph Hurdle on more than one occasion. Kasbah Bliss looks a solid 9/1 bet for that race, and the Gallic double pays out at a massive 129/1 for the win!

Cheltenham Ante Post Double (Each-way): L'Ami @ 12/1 (Gold Cup) & Kasbah Bliss @ 9/1 (Triumph Hurdle) – non-runner no bet

MONEY BACK ON CHELTENHAM NON-RUNNERS

After another Cheltenham Festival fancy, Rhinestone Cowboy, bit the dust last week, ante post bettors would have been relieved to see that bet365 are now non-runner no bet on all races at the Festival. This is a nice insurance to have, particularly with some of this year's novices, who have been declared for both the Supreme Novice and Royal & SunAlliance Hurdles. That includes Straw Bear, whose connections are still undecided on which race he'll tackle, although he's more likely to run in the former, for which he gets a bet365 quote of 10/1.

Another high profile runner, Our Vic, is a possible for both the Ryanair Chase (2m 5f) and the Gold Cup over three and a quarter miles. Trainer Martin Pipe is convinced that his charge will stay the longer trip, and that will please those bet365 customers who are on at 40/1 ante post! He's now half those odds, and backers at that price are at least assured of a run for their money, or their stake returned to their bet365 balance!

FORD CHAMPIONSHIP – WELCOME HOME FURYK AT 19/1

Th Mar 2 – 22.00 (SS2)

Fr Mar 3 – 20.00 (SSX)

Sa Mar 4 – 20.00 (SS2)

Su Mar 5 – 20.00 (SS3)

Tiger Woods is almost unbeatable when he's playing his best, and that was certainly the case last year, when he shot a remarkable score of 129 at the weekend to pip Phil Mickelson. Woods' record is now 1-2-9 for his three appearances here, and it is hard to believe (despite not being at his very best this year) that he won't be bang in contention going into the final round. The bet365 'Enhanced Win Only' price of 18/5 is the best out there, but value hunters might want to consider waiting until the event goes live. He's almost certain to be a bigger price on our 'In-Play Console at some stage, especially as he heads a stellar field containing nine of the world's top-10 players.

Tiger is of course a Florida resident, and Florida-based golfers have won 14 of the last 16 runnings of this first leg of the so-called 'Florida Swing'. Unfortunately for bet365 customers, 40 of the 144-strong field have now made their (or a) home in the Sunshine State, so we can't rely on this stat alone when picking the winner this week.

Fortunately, the stereotypical winner also has plenty of positive course experience, and that makes Jim Furyk of interest this week at bet365's 19/1 (EWO). Furyk will be glad to see the Tour arrive back in his home state (and back on his beloved Bermuda greens), and he's excelled in his event with four top-tens in his last five visits, including a win in 2000 and a second in 2003. The fact that he was eliminated early from last week's Matchplay, meaning that he didn't waste too much energy, could also be in his favour.

Europe sends out its big guns this week, including Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington, but neither have particularly good records here. Angel Cabrera is much more interesting (and a bigger price at 66/1!), as he's shown a liking for the course – tied 10th, tied 17th, missed cut, tied fifth in his last four starts. If you're looking for a big priced outsider to get into the frame (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5), then he could be your man, while we'll also be risking a few quid each way on Tampa resident David Branshaw, at a massive bet365 price of 175/1! Last years' Nationwide Tour Championship winner has been going well on the West Coast with two top-20's in four starts, including a solo sixth last week.

Ford Championship at Doral Three Off The Tee … Jim Furyk 18/1, Angel Cabrera 66/1, David Branshaw 175/1. Each-way 1/4 odds 1.2.3.4.5

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.