» January 5th, 2006

WEEK 17 - RAMS BACKED DOWN TO 7.5...

bet365 latest Super Bowl prices...
Indianapolis Evens, Seattle 9/2, New England 7/1, Denver 8/1, Chicago 10/1, Pittsburgh 25/1, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina 33/1, Washington 40/1, Jacksonville 50/1

Week 17 was a surprisingly busy one for betting, considering the amount of fixtures that meant nothing. And, with nine favourites winning and covering, the money certainly went the way of bet365 customers, with the world and his dog wanting to be on Carolina (-4), and St Louis (+12.5), against Atlanta and Dallas respectively. The latter had lost any hope of qualifying by kick off, and that fact was not lost on our customers who piled into the winning underdogs (line fell by 5 points). The bet365 Parlay Bonus also took a hammering (up to 50% more every week), and for those of you looking to play up your winnings this week, here's my take on the best bets for this weekend's wild card games.

WILD CARD WEEKEND - END OF THE ROAD FOR HOME TEAMS?...

Up to last season, history had dictated that the majority of the road teams may as well of stayed at home. In the nine seasons up to and including 2003/4, no more than one of the fifth and sixth seeds in each conference managed to make it through the divisional round, but that all changed last season, when three of the four road teams progressed. In fact, only Indy justified their position as home favourites, and they were -10! This year's hottest favourites at bet365 are the Patriots (-8 from -7), but even they're not likely to have things all their own way against Jacksonville.

JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE...

Saturday, 1/7: 8:00pm ET ABC

The Jags will get a massive break when (if) QB Byron Leftwich returns to the team after being absent since November. Not that his replacement, David Garrard, has been bad, it's just that Leftwich is better, and he's got to be worth a couple of points at least to the line. However, he's bound to be rusty, and it's going to be tough coming back at Foxboro in January. Bettors shouldn't be fooled by the Jags 12-4 record either. In their last ten games, they've played one team with a winning record, and have trailed in nine of their 12 victories. In that respect, the Pats could be worth backing at -4 to be leading after the first half (check out our other '1st Half Lines'), but should we be backing them at -8 to win outright? They'll probably win, but instead of worrying about the line, we'll back the 'Under' at bet365 instead. The cold weather is going to be a big factor in keeping the scoring low between these two strong defenses.

Pick: Under 37 Points @ 10/11

PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE...

Sunday, 1/8: 4:30pm ET CBS

Two of this weekend's matchups were played out in the regular season. Pittsburrgh won 27-13 in their Week Seven clash at Cincinnati, although they lost 38-31 at home to the Bengals six weeks later. Since then, the Steelers have been on a roll, having won their last four games by an average of 20 points, which would explain why they're 3-point favourites here at bet365 (opened at 2). That's good news for those of you who like the fact that + 3 Cincinnati have homefield advantage, but can we really trust this team right now? Cincy have covered just one of their last seven home games, and looked terrible in their last two games, losing to by a combined 44 points to the Chiefs and the Bills. Ok, with the No.3 seed wrapped up, they might not have needed those games, but it's still difficult to see past Pittsburgh -3, and at the current bet365 price of 20/21, there's only one place to bet it.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3 @ 20/21

WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE...

Saturday, 1/7: 4:30pm ET ABC

In the NFC, Tampa Bay won their Week Ten game against Washington 36-35 with a dramatic two-point conversion in the final minute, and things look set to be close again this weekend. Tampa probably just deserve to be favourite (currently -2.5) with homefield advantage, and the way QB Chris Simms is playing, but Washington will go into this game full of confidence on the back of a 5-game winning streak. They'll also be looking to put more pressure on Simms than they did in Week Ten. They finished sackless there, and allowed Simms to throw for 279 yards and three TD's, but the Redskins (who registered seven sacks against Dallas and four at Philly) will make sure the young QB is never comfortable, and that should see them through to the next round.

Pick: Washington +2.5 @ 10/11

CAROLINA @ NEW YORK GIANTS – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE...

Sunday, 1/8: 1:00pm ET FOX

This is a tough one to call, but personal preference is for Carolina +2.5 (opened +3). The Panthers were my ante post Super Bowl pick at 14/1, and those odds are looking poor value now they're trading at 33/1, but much better since their 44-11 romp over Atlanta last weekend. Of course, it's going to be tough for them to go all the way – no fifth or sixth seed has even reached the Super Bowl since the 12-team playoff format was introduced in 1990 – but those odds will be a lot shorter should they beat the Giants this weekend. The Giants may be 8-1 at home this season, but Carolina are 6-2 on the road, so there's no clues there. If only the Panthers could run the ball...

Pick (or like to see win): Carolina +3.0 @ 10/11

GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS...
This weekend, we'll also be having a speculative parlay wager on our four selections, especially as you're assured of getting an extra value here at bet365 with our Parlay Bonus. Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on successful football and basketball parlays on the following 6 markets:

1. Point Spread
2. Game Total
3. First Half Point Spread
4. Second Half Point Spread
5. First Half Total
6. Second Half Total

A $50 parlay on Carolina (+2.5), Washington (+2.5), Pittsburgh (-3.0) and 'Under' 37 points in the Patriots game pays out $747.15 - which includes a bet365 bonus of 10%

Good luck for the playoffs.

CRANE CAN TAKE LEAP OF FAITH AT 22/1...

MERCEDES CHAMPIONSHIP – LIVE BETTING AVILABLE

Thursday, 1/5: 7-10:30pm ET ESPN

Friday, 1/6: 7-10:30pm ET ESPN

Saturday, 1/7: 7-10:30pm ET ESPN

Sunday, 1/8: 7-10:30pm ET ESPN

If (like me) you've been suffering from withdrawal symptoms after not being able to bet on the PGA Tour for several weeks, then this week's Mercedes Championship offers a quick fix. It's not quite the full monty, with only 28 players and no Woods in the field, but that at least give us a first rate chance of finding the winner, or at least getting one into the frame (1/4 odds 1st four). And, as our 7/2 favourite, Vijay Singh, has yet to win this in six attempts, there is also the possibility of finding one at a decent price.

The keys to success here are the ability to handle the inevitable Hawaiian wind, making the most of the par fives (four in total), and being able to out well on the large grainy greens. The latter has been made even more of a test now that they've changed the grass to make them even quicker, and that could rule out the likes of Sergio Garcia (8/1) and Singh, whose putting problems have been well-documented. But, as officially the best putter this week based on last year's stats (3rd overall), the chances of Ben Crane cannot be ignored, and the devout Christian is our main selection this week at a tasty 22/1. The fact that he's already got experience of the course is a plus too – tied for month on his debut two years ago – and he's a much more accomplished player now.

It might also be worth a having a few quid on the only current Major winner who's bothered to turn up this week – Michael Campbell – especially as he's a standout 18/1 with us! The US Open champion was a good third in Tiger's tournament in California in December, which means he won't be as rusty as some, while his ability to play in the wind is a plus too. The final pick goes to Geoff Ogilvy for much of the same reasons as the other two (great putter, excellent on par fives), so let's just hope we can have one player in contention on Sunday night. If not, we can always resort to our 'In-Play' service which offers wire to wire betting on the US PGA Tour events, including Outright, End Of Round Leader, and Who Will Shoot The Lowest Score betting. Best of luck with your golf bets this season!

Nigel's Three Off The Tee... Michael Campbell @ 18/1, Ben Crane 22/1, Geoff Ogilvy @ 33/1 (1/4 odds 1.2.3.4)

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times EST (unless otherwise noted) and are subject to change. Check local listings.