» January 12th, 2006

This week's article brought to you by Allan Drost

TIME TO BACK THE OUTSIDERS

bet365 latest Super Bowl prices...
Indianapolis 2.00, Seattle 4.50, Denver 8.00, New England 8.50, Chicago 13.00, Carolina 15.00, Pittsburgh 17.00, Washington 34.00

With the Wild Card Weekend behind us, it will be all about the race for the Divisional titles in AFC and NFC respectively over the coming two weeks. The weekend saw a clean sweep for all the NFL-picks advertised by bet365's Nigel Ridgway in last week's Get In The Game and the $50 parlay on Carolina (+2.5), Washington (+2.5), Pittsburgh (-3.0) and 'Under 37 points' in the Patriots game was also right on the money and paid out $747.15, which included a bet365 bonus of 10%!

So 8 teams are still on route to The Big Show in Florida on February 5th and a tasty looking match-up for the Conference semi finals this weekend (where you can bet on all 4 games Live In-Play with bet365) should ensure plenty of excitement in front of the TV. Looking at potential smokers of the big cigar, its worth noting that bet365 has the best price on the market on the Patriots to win the AFC at generous 5.75 and the schedule ahead of them does not look impossible, although it would take two away wins to get them that far. However Brady's consistency and the stone-cold mind of Coach Bill Belichick along with an outstanding 10-0 play-off record over the last 3 seasons, tells a tale of a team that knows how to win when the going gets tough.

ARE YOU BACKING BRADY @ bet365?

bet365 latest AFC Outright prices...
IND Colts @ 1.57, DEN Broncos @ 4.50, NE Patriots @ 5.75 (best price!) and PIT Steelers @ 11.00

bet365 latest NFC Outright prices...
SEA Seahawks @ 1.72, CHI Bears @ 3.75, CAR Panthers @ 5.25 and WAS Redskins @ 11.00

Pats comfortably saw off the JAX on Saturday night, Brady had perhaps his most impressive of many seasons on QB, this year adding the long throws to an impressive repertoire and Sunday saw another outstanding display by the defence which only allowed a single FG and sacked JAX QB, B. Leftwich 6 times for a total loss of 42 yards in the Wild Card game. Obviously Broncos will be a different matter, but in 10 attempts no team has gotten past Brady and Belichick in the post-season and I can't see why it'd be likely to happen on Saturday either with a team that apart from losing with a reserve-roster to Miami in week 17 has not lost a game since late November.

Obviously Indianapolis are still heavy favourites for the divisional title, but firstly they are up for a big test against the Steelers. Secondly it's actually been a full 4 weeks since the last impressive Colts performance. This could obviously work either way, but in a one-off winner-takes-all between a red-hot Patriots and a slightly over-fancied Colts (and that's IF they see it past the Steelers which is no certainty either, making a saver on the Steelers @ 11.00 with us, which is also un-rivalled in the market, a decent option), I certainly know where my money is going, especially thinking back to last season where the situation was exactly the same before the Colts were completely closed down losing 20-3 in the Divisional play-off game to... New England!

As for the battle in the NFC, bet365's price of 5.25 on the Panthers is also amongst the highest available out there. Panthers know what it takes to get all the way through, as they did it only a couple of seasons – also back then after having taken the slight de-tour through the Wild Card-games. The total thrashing of the Giants on Sunday where Jake Delhomme let the team to a total of 335 offensive yards through possessing the ball for more than 42 out of the total 60 minutes of play was expected and much fancied here at bet365, and surely the Bears must be on their toes in order not to get 'skinned' in the late game on Sunday by a Panthers outfit that seemingly improve game for game, much like a couple of seasons ago.

WAS Redskins @ SEA Seahawks

Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 – 5:30pm ET

Seahawks haven't lost at home this season and the Redskins only managed a total of 120 offensive yards in a tight Wild Card game against the Buccaneers. Seahawks (13-3) haven't lost at home this season. Should be easy, right!? Wrong! Divisional playoff games are NEVER easy, Redskins are on a 6-0 winning streak and they beat Seattle 20-17 through an OT field goal in week 5. Furthermore, on Saturday they were up against a better defence than that of the Seattle Seahawks, they have proved that they can contain Shaun Alexander who was only allowed a total of 98 rushing yards in week 4.

Apart from Alexander, the Seahawks don't have anyone coming even close to the 1000 offensive yards mark for the season and in any case, the 9 points advantage available at bet365 seems very big indeed against a team that I personally think is over-rated and hugely dependent on one single player. Sure, Alexander's 1880 offensive yards for the season is impressive, but if anyone knows how to contain him, it is Gregg Williams, probably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL for which he was rewarded last week with a new contract and a big, fat pay-check!

With the likes of Clinton Portis and Santana Moss to lead the team on offence, they will definitely put points on the board, and I wouldn't even rule out the upset (which is priced at a massive 4.25 with us). The safest bet, however, seems to be settling for Redskins with the 9 points advantage.

bet365 Pick: Redskins +9 @ 1.90

NE Patriots @ DEN Broncos

Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 9.00pm ET

The Patriots have really stepped up their game in recent weeks and Brady is looking as impressive as ever. Forget about the tales from the past about a Patriots that predominantly keep the ball on the ground to pick up short yardage. Brady has gone airborne, passing for more than 4000 yards for the season, which is amongst the highest in the league. Whereas many would say that this is a sign of Brady having matured, I'd argue that it's a sign of Belichick successfully managing to improve a team which has won three Superbowls on the stretch – namely in the pass-protection area. That combined with having a quarterback capable of throwing the football to any square inch of the pitch is bound to be a recipe for success and could hurt the Broncos where they are vulnerable, namely against the pass!

Admittedly, a trip to Denver is not among the most heavily fancied at the moment. Broncos are 8-1 from the last nine and beat Patriots 28-20 in week 6. However a look through the tapes suggests that the Patriots-outfit that day was very different to the one turning up on Sunday, since neither Corey Dillon, nor Kevin Faulk, Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi or Ellis Hobbs was in the line-up. As such the Broncos offence will not be likely to better the 178 offensive yards from week 6 and with Brady alone averaging about 235 passing yards per game, the fact that Broncos this year has a negative net passing record (Broncos passed for 3227 yards in total in the regular season while their opponents totalled 3643...) and the likes of Corey Dillon getting involved along the ground as well, one would have to fancy Patriots and give them the edge here. Bet365 is EVS on Patriots +3 and that is not bettered by anyone in the market.

bet365 Pick: Patriots +3 @ 2.00 (best price!)

PIT Steelers @ IND Colts

Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 1.00pm ET

The Pittsburgh defence will need all their skill when squaring off with the Colts if they are to contain Peyton Manning, but that is by no means an impossible task. The Colts have struggled to keep tight on defence when facing teams with a winning record this season and apart from a scrappy win against the Cardinals in week 17, its actually been 4 weeks since the last impressive Colts victory in the NFL. The Steelers are coming off a good win at Cincinatti against the Bengals, they have won 5 games in a row, where they have only given up an average of 10 points per game – very impressive indeed!!

At the same time Big Ben seems to have overcome his injury-worries and the Steelers offence lead by 'Fast Wille' Parker, Duce Staley, Veron Haynes and Jerome 'The Bus' Bettis seems to have gotten into gear! The two teams met earlier this season where Roethlisberger was held to a season-low total of 7 points, but that was Big Bens first game back after the knee surgery that sidelined him for three weeks in the middle of the season and certainly the Steelers seem much more potent at present. The biggest problem for the Steelers might be handling the noise-level which will be insane at the RCA Dome on Sunday. However I am confident that the slightly match-rusty Colts starters will be held on a leash by the best 6th seed in the NFC for a long, long while.

bet365 Pick: Steelers +9.5 @ 1.90

CAR Panthers @ CHI Bears

Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 5.30pm ET

Get ready for the toughest defensive battle of the season! Chicago Bears defensive capabilities have been well proven throughout the season, and the Panthers proved against the Giants that they are not far behind at all, not conceding as much as a single point for the first time this season against a team that only once in the last 11 games put less than 20 points on the board! With that in mind, this is almost guaranteed to be a low-scoring affair, just like it was the case in week 11, where Chicago won 13-3 at home. The totals line with bet365 is not surprisingly set to just 30 points, but still there seems to be value in the UNDER 30 points @ 1.90, which will get the shout for me in this game. Gun to my head on the spread, I (and many others, judging from the movement in the market) could see the Panthers take advantage of the home field and edge out the Bears – especially with a 3-point advantage, but as this has been backed down to 1.80 (from 1.90) with us, the value seems to be on UNDER the 30 total points in the game, as both teams are likely to continue what they do best: Keep it tight on defence and avoid to lose the game through penalties and offensive errors.

bet365 Pick: UNDER 30.0 @ 1.90

GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS
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A $50 parlay on Washington (+9), Patriots (+3), Pittsburgh (+9.5) and 'Under' 30 points in the Panthers game pays out $754.49 - which includes a bet365 bonus of 10%

Good luck to everyone following!

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times EST (unless otherwise noted) and are subject to change. Check local listings.