» January 20th, 2006

BIG NAMES CRASH OUT - DENVER NEW FAVS AT 15/8

bet365 latest Super Bowl prices...
Denver 15/8, Seattle 5/2, Pittsburgh 14/5, Carolina 15/4 (advised pre-season at 14/1!)

Who’d have believed it – the reigning champions and the champions-elect (for many) are out of the Super Bowl at the last-eight stage. Both had opened the season as joint 6/1 favourites, but with the Pats dumped at Denver, and the Colts’ heroics just falling short at home to Pittsburgh 24 hours later, the outright market has a brand new flavour to it. And, it’s Denver who inherit favouritism after gaining home field advantage for the AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, ahead of Seattle, who host awayday specialists Carolina. Both visitors are small handicap underdogs here at bet365 – Pittsburgh +3, Carolina +3.5.

SUPER BOWL LINES SCRAMBLED - AFC NOW -3.5

The ramifications of the Colts being eliminated can also be seen in our early Super Bowl XL line. Before Indy’s loss at the weekend, the AFC was as high as -8.5 to beat the NFC in the final (-12.5 before their loss to San Diego). The line would probably have been higher if the Colts had made it to Detroit. Instead, the number is all the way down to -3.5 for the AFC (the total is set at 46). As a result, if the Seahawks advance to Super Bowl XL, early NFC futures bettors here at bet365, could find themselves getting 8.5 points with the game day favourite, depending on how the AFC title game shakes out.

bet365’s latest Super Bowl line... +3.5 / AFC -3.5

AFC TITLE - PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT DENVER BRONCOS

Live betting - Su Jan 21 – 3:00 pm EST/08:00 GMT

The Steelers may have the most momentum of any team left in the NFL playoffs, after six straight victories. However, they could well run out of gas here, and the Broncos look great value with bet365 at -3. After beating the Bengals in Cincinnati and upsetting the Colts on Sunday, this could be one game too many for the Steelers. They’re such a physical team, which means they’re using up vast amounts of energy week in and week out. That could well take a heavy toll at the business end of the season. Remember, they’ve already lost four of five AFC championship games and one Super Bowl under Bill Cowher.

But that’s not the only factor working in the Bronco’s favour. Pittsburgh are 0-5 when they can’t get 100 yards rushing, and they’ll struggle to get 100 yards rushing at Denver. Then there's the Denver defense. Last week, the Steelers got a quick 14 on the board, but they only ended up with 21. You'd have to say that Denver are far superior defensively to Indy, allowing just 12 ppg at home this season. Oh, did I mention home field advantage!

Pick: Denver (-3.0) @ 10/11

NFC TITLE - CAROLINA PANTHERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Live betting - Su Jan 21 – 6:30pm EST/11:30 GMT

If the Panthers want to reach the Super Bowl, they’ll have to win their fourth consecutive road game. However, we all know what the Panthers are like on the road, and they are excellent value at +3.5 with bet365. Of course, they’ll be without running back DeShaun Foster (broken ankle). Without him they really are a one-man offense with Steve Smith – but what a man! Last week, he helped the Panthers score 29 runs with a return of 219 yards on 12 receptions, TD’s of 58 and 39 yards, and 26 rushing yards for good measure.

While Smith has come up big in the playoffs, so has QB Jake Delhomme, who’s 5-1 in his career in the postseason (4-0 on the road). While Smith is the NFL’s best receiver this year, somebody has got to get it to him, and Delhomme deserves some credit for that. The last time the two teams met, the Seahawks posted a 23-17 victory over the Panthers here, but that was last season. Last week, Seattle could only manage 20 points last week against a decent Washington defense. Carolina's pass defense is almost identical to Washington‘s, but their run defense is significantly better!

Pick: Carolina (+3.5) @ 10/11

BET IT LIVE WITH 365

What was remarkable about the Pittsburgh – Indy game was the fluctuating prices on our ‘In-Play Console’. The Steelers started the game at +10, but were bet down to -11 when they were leading 21-3. When the Colts closed to 21-18 the game was Pick’em, but when Colts QB Peyton Manning was sacked on his own two-yard line the game looked over. However, a fumble by Jerome Bettis allowed Indy’s Nick Harper to race off for what looked a game-winning TD, only for him to be tackled by Ben Roethlisburger - incredible! This weekend, we’ll have live ‘In-Play’ betting on both games, of course, but don’t forget to check out our pre-game props too. There were 33 at the last count!

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Hopefully, you haven’t got to this stage of the season without hitting a parlay or two. If so, you’ll know all about our Parlay Bonus, which pays out up to 50% more on successful football (and basketball) parlays on the following 6 markets:

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A $50 parlay on this weekend’s Conference Final’s picks - Carolina +3.5 and Denver -3 - pays out $191.34, which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%.

Best of luck for this weekend!

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times EST (unless otherwise noted) and are subject to change. Check local listings.