» February 2nd, 2006

PITTSBURGH V SEATTLE – STEELERS FAVOURITE AT -4

Live betting - Su Feb 5 – 6:00pm ET

Either way, the team that wins the Super Bowl must be considered as a surprise. Pittsburgh were as big as 50/1 after Week 13, while Seattle were pre-season 40/1 shots. Pittsburgh have since won seven in a row to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995, including a swashbuckling playoff run which saw them join the 1985 Patriots as the only clubs to win three consecutive road games in the preseason. In comparison, Seattle have had a relatively easy time of it getting to their first Super Bowl, handing out a 20-10 the Redskins in the divisional round, and then blowing out the Carolina Panthers 34-14 in the NFC Championship Game. On that evidence, we made Pittsburgh early favourites at -3 here at bet365, and this has now been bet down to -4. The total is set at 47.5 (from 47).

bet365 Super Bowl Money Line... Pittsburgh 20/37, Seattle 33/20

Although this is technically a road game for both, the well-backed Steelers can expect to have an element of home advantage on Sunday. Detroit isn't too far from Pittsburgh, and their fans should easily out-number those from the Pacific north-west. The reduced Seahawk fans will take also away the noise advantage that played such a factor throughout the regular and postseason back in Washington. And, playing on an artificial surface should prove a bigger disadvantage to Seattle. Pittsburgh only recently played in a Dome when defeating the Colts, whilst Seattle's only indoor game was way back in Week 5 against St Louis.

ONE MORE FOR THE ROAD?

Not that Pittsburgh should feel disadvantaged playing away from home. Their last three wins all came on the road, starting with Cincinnati in the Wild Card playoffs, before a 21-18 win at Indianapolis, a team who many predicted would win the Super Bowl after it's 13-0 start. However, their best road performance came in Denver, winning the AFC championship game 34-17 over a club which hadn't lost at home all season. During the main season, Seattle's three defeats all came on the road – Jacksonville, Washington and Green Bay (admittedly at a time when the number one seed was all but secure) – and they struggled to beat San Francisco (27-25) and Tennessee (28-24), two of the poorest NFL teams in 2005. So, the omens are good for Pittsburgh, and they look a solid bet at -4.

Super Bowl XL Pick: Pittsburgh -4 @ 10/11

SUPER BOWL 'XL' LIVES UP TO ITS BILLING

First Score of Game
You'd think that it would be easier to score a field goal than a TD, but both of these teams like to make their first score of the game in the end zone. The Steelers have scored a six-pointer first in 14 of their 19 games this season, while the Seahawks have gone one better.

Pick: Touchdown @ 4/7

Team scoring first wins game
No team knows how to protect a lead like Pittsburgh, especially in the playoffs. If the Steelers can put some early points on the board, then expect them to do anything to protect that lead.

Pick: Yes @ 4/7

Penalties - Total number of penalties made by both teams, over or under 12 1/2?
This total is probably based on the fact that the Seahawks and the Steelers were two of only eight teams in the NFL to commit fewer than100 penalties over the season. However, everything changes under the glare of the Super Bowl lights, especially for Super Bowl virgins. The Panthers were flagged 12 times in 2004 in their first ever appearance, while Baltimore also succumbed to nerves with nine penalties in 2001.

Pick: Over 12 1/2 @ 10/11

Sacks - Total quarterback sacks made in the game, over or under 4 1/2?
The Steelers defence is nasty, but it's the Seahawks that lead the NFL in sacks in the regular season with 50 (three more than Pittsburgh), led by Rocky Bernard on 8 1/2 (scored two more against Carolina in the NFC Championship game). For Pittsburgh, Joey Porter is leading all linebackers with 10 1/2 sacks this season, and he's a constant source of irritation to offences.

Pick: Over 4.5 Sacks @ 10/11

Double Result
If Pittsburgh is a solid bet at -4, an even better bet could be on our half time / full time market, which sees the AFC champions available at Evens to be leading at both the interval and at the end of the fourth quarter. This is also backed up by the fact that six of the last seven Steelers' games have followed this trend.

Pick: Pittsburgh / Pittsburgh @ Evens

Highest Scoring Quarter
Super Bowl fans have been treated to some crazy finishes in recent years. In six of the last seven finals, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth, yet our betting for the most productive quarter is like any other NFL game – second quarter as favourite, ahead of the fourth, with the first and third as rags. Only once in the past 20 years has the first quarter copped, while the third looks bad value at 13/8 given that scoring between the 16th and 30th minutes has been the most productive only three times (once in the last 14).

Pick: Fourth Quarter @ 9/5

BET IT LIVE WITH 365

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For example, a $50 Parlay on Pittsburgh -4 and 'Over' 47.5 Points pays out $191.34, which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%.

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times EST (unless otherwise noted) and are subject to change. Check local listings.